Who wins Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race?
Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term; former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola (D), the last Democrat to win statewide, entered the race in early 2026 — the marquee matchup. Alaska's top-four open primary is August 18, 2026, with the top four advancing to a ranked-choice general on November 3, 2026. Note: a second candidate also named Dan Sullivan (a retired Petersburg teacher) will appear on the primary ballot.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 33.3% |
| Mary Peltola | 33.3% |
| Someone else | 33.3% |
Resolution
Resolves to the candidate certified as the winner of the November 2026 general election by the Alaska Division of Elections, at the final round of ranked-choice tabulation. 'Dan Sullivan (incumbent)' refers to sitting U.S. Senator Dan S. Sullivan. 'Someone else' resolves YES if the certified winner is any candidate other than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan or Mary Peltola (including the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot).
Source: Alaska Division of Elections certified results · Expected: Late November 2026 (certification)